The markets are moving according to the announcements of the vaccines and the expectations that are generated.
How is market rotation affecting Bitcoin?
The word on the street is that Bitcoin is a viable asset to invest in. It seems that Bitcoin Investor is now reliable. Its price hasn’t been like this since December 2017 and has registered an impressive 4X increase from its minimum price in March of this year. The pandemic has changed the world and has greatly improved Bitcoin’s reputation. The images of fraud, manipulation, regulatory ambiguity, and constant hacking are no longer the first ones that emerge in the mind of the traditional investor with the word Bitcoin.
The pandemic has accelerated many processes. But it has greatly favored the digitalization of the world. In other words, the world is less analogous. That means that everything related to the Internet has been beautified. The Fintech sector in particular has been selected as the party poacher and the king of the troupe. Ah, but we’ve known that for a long time. Why now? Why is the upswing happening now? Why didn’t it happen a couple of months ago?
Why? Well, because of new purchases. And the investor buys for a reason: Optimism. That is, the investor is seeing future demand for Bitcoin. Predicting the market is never easy. But it’s possible to understand the reasons for today’s optimism in hindsight. By analyzing the news, the mood in the room, and the reactions of the market, we can get a rough idea of what’s happening.
Four events: Biden’s victory, the approval of the vaccines, the second wave of the coronavirus and the end of the year. Companies, funds, and individuals are making decisions. Things are not good, because infections have increased dramatically and new containment measures are likely in many places. But at least now we have a light in the tunnel. We will certainly have a new monetary and fiscal stimulus package for the first quarter of next year (in the US). This means that the recovery will have the liquidity it needs.
On the other hand, there’s the issue of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that tell us that sooner or later the pandemic will be manageable and eventually we will return to “normal”. Perhaps this normality will not be fully achieved by the first semester of next year, but by the second semester we will surely be much closer. That expectation is rotating the markets. And it’s already obvious that Bitcoin has benefited a lot from this. Right now, companies need something to impress the public. The funds need to improve their numbers. And individuals need profits to spend Christmas on a full stomach. We’re in bad shape, but we’re doing well. And that in times of volatility translates into gains.
Due to the health care constraints, during this crisis, the liquidity of the stimulus has fallen mainly in the Tech sector. Stock market indices have recovered quite a bit since the March crash. But we must remember that the indices are averages. That is, not all sectors have been part of the recovery in the same way during the pandemic. The market has been very divided. The digital vs. the analog. Growth stocks vs. value stocks. Defensive stocks vs. cyclical stocks.
Lately, however, everything seems upside down and crazier than usual. Well, because the markets are rotating thanks to the vaccine news. That is, investors who made a lot of money this year with the tech sector are now investing in companies or assets that will return to profit with the return to normal, because of this light in the tunnel we are seeing now. For example. Movie theaters, airlines, hotels, bars, restaurants, etc. But also cyclical stocks such as the automobile sector and the banking sector have reactivated quite well during this rotation.
There is a lot of uncertainty and volatility, but that nervousness is being channeled to the positive side. It’s all mixed up. And nothing seems to make sense. But it is part of this process of discovery that we are living because of this rotation.
Gold, for example, reached an all-time high of $2,072 per ounce in August. But now it’s at $1,885 (approx). Something that confirms once again that Bitcoin is strengthened in optimism and not in fear (like gold). In other words, it’s not a safe haven in times of panic, but a growing (aggressive) asset in times of hope. This feature puts Bitcoin closer to a company like PayPal or Tesla than to a safe asset like gold, or